Identification

Title

Forecasts of opportunity for Northern California soil moisture

Abstract

Soil moisture anomalies underpin a number of critical hydrological phenomena with socioeconomic consequences, yet systematic studies of soil moisture predictability are limited. Here, we use a data-adaptive technique, Linear Inverse Modeling, which has proved useful as an indication of predictability in other fields, to investigate the predictability of soil moisture in northern California. This approach yields a model of soil moisture at 10 stations in the region, with results that indicate the possibility of skillful forecasts at each for lead times of 1–2 weeks. An important advantage of this model is the a priori identification of forecasts of opportunity—conditions under which the model’s forecasts may be expected to have particularly high skill. Given that forecast errors (and inversely, their skill) can be estimated in advance, these findings have the potential to greatly increase the utility of soil moisture forecasts for practical applications including drought and flood forecasting.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7zs30zf

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2021-07-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact