Identification

Title

Model predictability of hail precipitation with a moderate hailstorm case. Part I: Impact of improved initial conditions by assimilating high-density observations

Abstract

Hailstones have large damage potential; however, their explicit prediction remains quite challenging. The uncertainty in a model's initial condition and microphysics are two of the significant contributors to the challenge. This two-part study aims to investigate the impacts of improved initial condition and microphysics on hail prediction for a moderate hailstorm that occurred in Beijing on 10 June 2016. In the first part, the role of initial conditions on hail prediction is explored by assimilating high-density observations into a numerical model with a recently developed explicit hail microphysics scheme. High-resolution and high-frequency observations from radar and surface networks are assimilated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model's three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system. The role of the initial conditions in improving explicit hail prediction with two different planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes, the Yonsei University (YSU) scheme and the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) scheme, is then examined. Results indicate that the data assimilation significantly improves the hail size and location prediction for both PBL schemes by reducing errors in surface wind, temperature, and moisture fields. It is also shown that the improved analyses of low-level and midlevel vertical wind shear, resulting mainly from radar data assimilation, are pivotal to the improvement of hailstorm prediction with the YSU scheme, while the improved analysis of thermodynamic field resulting from the assimilation of both radar and surface data plays a more important role with the MYJ scheme. The results of this work shed light on the influence of data assimilation and provide insights on explicit hail predictability with respect to model initial conditions.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7bv7mg7

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2022-10-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact