edu.ucar.opensky::articles:19697 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-26T02:28:58.611889 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d761123w Examination of mixed-phase precipitation forecasts from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model using surface observations and sounding data 2017-06-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d761123w https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-16-0171.1 Ikeda, Kyoko author Steiner, Matthias author Thompson, Gregory author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Accurate prediction of mixed-phase precipitation remains challenging for numerical weather prediction models even at high resolution and with a sophisticated explicit microphysics scheme and diagnostic algorithm to designate the surface precipitation type. Since mixed-phase winter weather precipitation can damage infrastructure and produce significant disruptions to air and road travel, incorrect surface precipitation phase forecasts can have major consequences for local and statewide decision-makers as well as the general public. Building upon earlier work, this study examines the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model's ability to forecast the surface precipitation phase, with a particular focus on model-predicted vertical temperature profiles associated with mixed-phase precipitation, using upper-air sounding observations as well as the Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) and Meteorological Phenomena Identification Near the Ground (mPING) observations. The analyses concentrate on regions of mixed-phase precipitation from two winter season events. The results show that when both the observational and model data indicated mixed-phase precipitation at the surface, the model represents the observed temperature profile well. Overall, cases where the model predicted rain but the observations indicated mixed-phase precipitation generally show a model surface temperature bias of <2°C and a vertical temperature profile similar to the sounding observations. However, the surface temperature bias was ~4°C in weather systems involving cold-air damming in the eastern United States, resulting in an incorrect surface precipitation phase or the duration (areal coverage) of freezing rain being much shorter (smaller) than the observation. Cases with predicted snow in regions of observed mixed-phase precipitation present subtle difference in the elevated layer with temperatures near 0°C and the near-surface layer. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2017 American Meteorological Society (AMS). None eng geoscientificInformation