Identification

Title

Estimating the risk of extreme wind gusts in tropical cyclones using idealized large-eddy simulations and a statistical–dynamical model

Abstract

Recent studies have shown that extreme wind gusts are ubiquitous within the eyewall of intense tropical cyclones (TCs). These gusts pose a substantial hazard to human life and property, but both the short-term (i.e., during the passage of a single TC) and long-term (over many years) risk of encountering such a gust at a given location is poorly understood. Here, simulated tower data from large-eddy simulations of idealized TCs in a quiescent (i.e., no mean flow or vertical wind shear) environment are used to estimate these risks for the offshore region of the United States. For both a category 5 TC and a category 3 TC, there is a radial region where nearly all simulated towers experience near-surface (the lowest 200 m) 3-s gusts exceeding 70 m s(-1) within a 10-min period; on average, these towers respectively sample peak 3-s gusts of 110 and 80 m s(-1). Analysis of an observational drop-sonde database supports the idealized simulations, and indicates that offshore structures (such as wind turbines) in the eyewall of a major hurricane are likely to encounter damaging wind speeds. This result is then incorporated into an estimate of the long-term risk, using analyses of the return period for major hurricanes from both a best-track database and a statistical-dynamical model forced by reanalysis. For much of the nearshore region of the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern U.S. coasts, this analysis yields an estimate of a 30%-60% probability of any given point experiencing at least one 70 m s(-1) gust within a 30-yr period.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7x63rhj

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2021-12-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact