edu.ucar.opensky::articles:42298 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-24T18:07:02.316342 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d73j3j8x Evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet over the next three centuries from an ISMIP6 model ensemble 2024-09-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d73j3j8x https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004561 Seroussi, H. author Pelle, T. author Lipscomb, William author Abe-Ouchi, A. author Albrecht, T. author J. Alvarez-Solas author Asay-Davis, X. author J. -B. Barre author Berends, C. J. author Bernales, J. author Blasco, J. author Caillet, J. author Chandler, D. M. author Coulon, V. author Cullather, R. author Dumas, C. author Galton-Fenzi, B. K. author Garbe, J. author Gillet-Chaulet, F. author Gladstone, R. author Goelzer, H. author Golledge, N. author Greve, R. author Gudmundsson, G. H. author Han, H. author Hillebrand, T. R. author Hoffman, M. J. author Huybrechts, P. author Jourdain, N. C. author Klose, A. K. author Langebroek, P. M. author Leguy, Gunter author Lowry, D. P. author Mathiot, P. author Montoya, M. author Morlighem, M. author Nowicki, S. author Pattyn, F. author Payne, A. J. author Quiquet, A. author Reese, R. author Robinson, A. author L. Saraste author Simon, E. G. author Sun, S. author J. P. Twarog author Trusel, L. D. author B. Urruty author Van Breedam, J. author van de Wal, R. S. W. author Wang, Y. author Zhao, C. author Zwinger, T. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher <p><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(0, 0, 0);display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:&quot;Open Sans&quot;, icomoon, sans-serif;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary effort of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project–Phase 6) focusing on ice sheets, designed to provide an ensemble of process-based projections of the ice-sheet contribution to sea-level rise over the twenty-first century. However, the behavior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet beyond 2100 remains largely unknown: several instability mechanisms can develop on longer time scales, potentially destabilizing large parts of Antarctica. Projections of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution until 2300 are presented here, using an ensemble of 16 ice-flow models and forcing from global climate models. Under high-emission scenarios, the Antarctic sea-level contribution is limited to less than 30&nbsp;cm sea-level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, but increases rapidly thereafter to reach up to 4.4&nbsp;m SLE by 2300. Simulations including ice-shelf collapse lead to an additional 1.1&nbsp;m SLE on average by 2300, and can reach 6.9&nbsp;m SLE. Widespread retreat is observed on that timescale in most West Antarctic basins, leading to a collapse of large sectors of West Antarctica by 2300 in 30%–40% of the ensemble. While the onset date of retreat varies among ice models, the rate of upstream propagation is highly consistent once retreat begins. Calculations of sea-level contribution including water density corrections lead to an additional ∼10% sea level and up to 50% for contributions accounting for bedrock uplift in response to ice loading. Overall, these results highlight large sea-level contributions from Antarctica and suggest that the choice of ice sheet model remains the leading source of uncertainty in multi-century projections.</span></p> UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication <style type="text/css"></style><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:10pt;font-style:normal;" data-sheets-root="1">Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.</span> None eng geoscientificInformation