Identification

Title

Configuration of Statistical Postprocessing Techniques for Improved Low-Level Wind Speed Forecasts in West Texas

Abstract

The wind energy industry needs accurate forecasts of wind speeds at turbine hub height and in the rotor layer to accurately predict power output from a wind farm. Current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models struggle to accurately predict low-level winds, partially due to systematic errors within the models due to deficiencies in physics parameterization schemes. These types of errors are addressed in this study with two statistical postprocessing techniques-model output statistics (MOS) and the analog ensemble (AnEn)-to understand the value of each technique in improving rotor-layer wind forecasts. This study is unique in that it compares the techniques using a sonic detection and ranging (SODAR) wind speed dataset that spans the entire turbine rotor layer. This study uses reforecasts from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and observations in west Texas over periods of up to two years to examine the skill added to forecasts when applying both MOS and the AnEn. Different aspects of the techniques are tested, including model horizontal and vertical resolution, number of predictors, and training set length. Both MOS and the AnEn are applied to several levels representing heights in the turbine rotor layer (40, 60, 80, 100, and 120 m). This study demonstrates the degree of improvement that different configurations of each technique provide to raw WRF forecasts, to help guide their use for low-level wind speed forecasts. It was found that both AnEn and MOS show significant improvement over the raw WRF forecasts, but the two methods do not differ significantly from each other.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7hq4334

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2020-02-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact