Identification

Title

Bayesian multilevel analysis of variance for relative comparison across sources of global climate model variability

Abstract

Projections of future climate conditions are carried out by many research institutions, each with their own general circulation model to do so. The projections are additionally subjected to distinct anthropogenic forcings, specified by future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. These two factors, together with their temporal effects and interaction, create several potential sources of variation in final climate projection output. Multilevel statistical models, and specifically multilevel ANOVA, have come to be widely used for many reasons, not least of which is their ability to comprehensively assess many different sources of variation. In this article, a Bayesian multilevel ANOVA approach is applied to climate projections to assess each of these sources of variation, estimate the uncertainty regarding the assessment, and to allow comparison across all sources. The data originate from phase three of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3), consisting of 11 circulation models and three emissions scenarios over nine decadal time periods for boreal summer and winter. Data from the next phase, CMIP5, is now becoming available. As this approach towards ANOVA is relatively novel, and particularly so for spatial data, a short discussion of conventional ANOVA and the new methodology is provided.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7w0973v

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2015-03-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact