Identification

Title

A real-time convection-allowing ensemble prediction system initialized by mesoscale ensemble Kalman Filter analyses

Abstract

In May and June 2013, the National Center for Atmospheric Research produced real-time 48-h convection-allowing ensemble forecasts at 3-km horizontal grid spacing using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model in support of the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment field program. The ensemble forecasts were initialized twice daily at 0000 and 1200 UTC from analysis members of a continuously cycling, limited-area, mesoscale (15 km) ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation system and evaluated with a focus on precipitation and severe weather guidance. Deterministic WRF Model forecasts initialized from GFS analyses were also examined. Subjectively, the ensemble forecasts often produced areas of intense convection over regions where severe weather was observed. Objective statistics confirmed these subjective impressions and indicated that the ensemble was skillful at predicting precipitation and severe weather events. Forecasts initialized at 1200 UTC were more skillful regarding precipitation and severe weather placement than forecasts initialized 12 h earlier at 0000 UTC, and the ensemble forecasts were typically more skillful than GFS-initialized forecasts. At times, 0000 UTC GFS-initialized forecasts had temporal distributions of domain-average rainfall closer to observations than EnKF-initialized forecasts. However, particularly when GFS analyses initialized WRF Model forecasts, 1200 UTC forecasts produced more rainfall during the first diurnal maximum than 0000 UTC forecasts. This behavior was mostly attributed to WRF Model initialization of clouds and moist physical processes. The success of these real-time ensemble forecasts demonstrates the feasibility of using limited-area continuously cycling EnKFs as a method to initialize convection-allowing ensemble forecasts, and future real-time high-resolution ensemble development leveraging EnKFs seems justified.

Resource type

document

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code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7n017vh

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

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geoscientificInformation

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Text

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title

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reference date

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publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

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publication

effective date

2015-10-01T00:00:00Z

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Copyright 2015 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work.

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None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata date

2023-08-18T19:04:11.155896

Metadata language

eng; USA