Identification

Title

Statistical modeling of hot spells and heat waves

Abstract

Although hot spells and heat waves are considered extreme meteorological phenomena, the statistical theory of extreme values has only rarely, if ever, been applied. To address this shortcoming, we extend the point process approach to extreme value analysis to model the frequency, duration, and intensity of hot spells. The annual frequency of hot spells is modeled by a Poisson distribution, their length by a geometric distribution. To account for the temporal dependence of daily maximum temperatures within a hot spell, the excesses over a high threshold are modeled by a conditional generalized Pareto distribution, whose scale parameter depends on the excess on the previous day. Requiring only univariate extreme value theory, our proposed approach is simple enough to be readily generalized to incorporate trends in hot spell characteristics. Through a heat wave simulator, the statistical modeling of hots spells can be extended to apply to more full-fledged heat waves, which are difficult to be modeled directly. Our statistical model for hot spells is fitted to time series of daily maximum temperature during the summer heat wave season at Phoenix, AZ, USA, Fort Collins, CO, USA, and Paris, France. Trends in the frequency, duration, and intensity of hot spells are fitted as well. The heat wave simulator is used to convert any such trends into the corresponding changes in the characteristics of heat waves. By being based at least in part on extreme value theory, our proposed approach is demonstrated to be both more realistic and more flexible than techniques heretofore applied to model hot spells and heat waves.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d70v8f22

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2010-10-19T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact