Identification

Title

Attributing the carbon cycle impacts of CMIP5 historical and tuture land use and land cover change in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1)

Abstract

Historical global land use and land cover change (LULCC) emissions of 160PgC represent a third of all human CO2 emissions from 1850 to 2010. Future land management decisions will have large impacts on the global carbon cycle, with scenarios ranging from continued deforestation and wood harvest to mitigation scenarios that reduce total emissions through afforestation and conversion to bioenergy. Here we present a systematic assessment of Community Earth System Model (CESM1) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) historic and projection simulations, with and without LULCC. For the historical period, CESM produced a Net LULCC flux of 123PgC to the atmosphere, removing -130PgC from ecosystems while increasing wood product pools by 7PgC. Historical LULCC fluxes were equally divided between conversion and wood harvest fluxes. For the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 afforestation scenario CESM produced a Net LULCC flux of 53PgC to the atmosphere, removing -58PgC out of the ecosystem and increasing wood product pools of 5PgC. The afforestation offsets the Direct LULCC flux of 153PgC with a negative Indirect LULCC flux of -94PgC. For the RCP 8.5 high LULCC scenario, CESM produced a Net LULCC flux of 211PgC, removing -227PgC from ecosystems and increasing wood product pools of 15PgC. The LULCC of the future RCP scenarios was dominated by wood harvest fluxes, which is a process that was not included in many of the CMIP5 models. The analysis framework also allowed the attribution of Indirect and Prior LULCC fluxes that offset the Direct LULCC fluxes in many cases.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7hd7zf0

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

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South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

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End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2018-05-24T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

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name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact