edu.ucar.opensky::articles:43311 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-24T17:51:25.890690 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7zw1rbr https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.143582cf https Related Dataset #1 Complete ERA5 global atmospheric reanalysis https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13647589 https Related Dataset #2 Dataset supporting "Predictable Patterns of Seasonal Atmospheric River Variability Over North America During Winter" Predictable patterns of seasonal atmospheric river variability over North America during winter 2025-04-16T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7zw1rbr https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112411 Clark, J. author Johnson, N. C. author Park, M. author Bernardez, Miguel A. author Delworth, T. L. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are elongated areas of pronounced atmospheric water vapor transport that play an important role in the hydrological cycle over North America during winter. We investigate the sources of winter seasonal AR predictability over North America using average predictability time (APT) analysis. The skill of seasonal AR frequency predictions, in dynamical model forecasts provided by the Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research, is nearly entirely attributable to three physically interpretable APT modes that together represent about 19% of the total seasonal AR frequency variance. These three modes represent the AR response to the El Ni&#241;o&#8208;Southern Oscillation, anthropogenic forcing and equatorial heating over the eastern flank of the western Pacific warm pool, respectively. We further show that these three modes, calculated from AR frequency, explain nearly all winter seasonal precipitation forecast skill over North America. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication <span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:10pt;font-style:normal;" data-sheets-root="1">Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.</span> None eng geoscientificInformation