edu.ucar.opensky::articles:10764 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-26T13:40:07.970240 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7p26znd Future climate change in the Southern Hemisphere: Competing effects of ozone and greenhouse gases 2011-01-19T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7p26znd https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045384 Arblaster, Julie author Meehl, Gerald A. author Karoly, D. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Future anthropogenic climate change in the Southern Hemisphere is likely to be driven by two opposing effects, stratospheric ozone recovery and increasing greenhouse gases. We examine simulations from two coupled climate models in which the details of these two forcings are known. While both models suggest that recent positive summertime trends in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will reverse sign over the coming decades as the ozone hole recovers, climate sensitivity appears to play a large role in modifying the strength of their SAM response. Similar relationships are found between climate sensitivity and SAM trends when the analysis is extended to transient CO₂ simulations from other coupled models. Tropical upper tropospheric warming is found to be more relevant than polar stratospheric cooling to the intermodel variation in the SAM trends in CO₂-only simulations. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright 2011 American Geophysical Union. None eng geoscientificInformation