Identification

Title

Performance of the HWRF rapid intensification analog ensemble (HWRF RI-AnEn) during the 2017 and 2018 HFIP real-time demonstrations

Abstract

The performance of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF) Rapid Intensification Analog Ensemble (RI-AnEn) is evaluated for real-time forecasts made during the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s 2018 Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) demonstration. Using a variety of assessment tools (Brier skill score, reliability diagrams, ROC curves, ROC skill scores), RI-AnEn is shown to perform competitively compared to both the deterministic HWRF and current operational probabilistic RI forecast aids. The assessment is extended to include forecasts from the 2017 HFIP demonstration and shows that RI-AnEn is the only model with significant RI forecast skill at all lead times in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins. Though RI-AnEn is overconfident in its RI forecasts, it is generally well calibrated for all lead times. Furthermore, significance testing indicates that for the 2017-2018 Atlantic and Eastern Pacific sample, RI-AnEn is more skillful than HWRF at all lead times and better than most of the other probabilistic guidance at 48 h and 72 h. ROC curves reveal that RI-AnEn offers a good combination of sensitivity and specificity, performing comparably to SHIPS-RII at all lead times in both basins. With respect to specific high-impact cases from the 2018 Atlantic season, performance of RI-AnEn ranges from excellent (Hurricane Michael) to poor (Hurricane Florence). The multi-year assessment and results for two high-impact case studies from 2018 indicate that, while promising, RI-AnEn requires further work to refine its performance as well as to accurately situate its effectiveness relative to other RI forecasts aids.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7h1357g

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2020-04-15T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact