edu.ucar.opensky::articles:25943 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-24T22:40:15.143361 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d71c21r8 Skillful seasonal prediction of North American summertime heat extremes 2022-07-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d71c21r8 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0364.1 Jia, Liwei author Delworth, T. L. author Kapnick, S. author Yang, X. author Johnson, N. C. author Cooke, W. author Lu, F. author Harrison, M. author Rosati, Anthony author Zeng, F. author McHugh, C. author Wittenberg, A. T. author Zhang, Liping author Murakami, Hiroyuki author Tseng, K. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher This study shows that the frequency of North American summertime (June-August) heat extremes is skillfully predicted several months in advance in the newly developed Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research (SPEAR) seasonal forecast system. Using a statistical optimization method, the average predictability time, we identify three large-scale components of the frequency of North American summer heat extremes that are predictable with significant correlation skill. One component, which is related to a secular warming trend, shows a continent-wide increase in the frequency of summer heat extremes and is highly predictable at least 9 months in advance. This trend component is likely a response to external radiative forcing. The second component is largely driven by the sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific and North Atlantic and is significantly correlated with the central U.S. soil moisture. The second component shows largest loadings over the central United States and is significantly predictable 9 months in advance. The third component, which is related to the central Pacific El Ni (n) over bar no, displays a dipole structure over North America and is predictable up to 4 months in advance. Potential implications for advancing seasonal predictions of North American summertime heat extremes are discussed. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2022 American Meteorological Society (AMS). None eng geoscientificInformation