edu.ucar.opensky::articles:27424 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-24T18:09:07.044187 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7x92gjb https://doi.org/10.5285/4dbd3ccb85d747188586735133f1d3d9 https Related Dataset #1 Chapter 7 of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - Input data for Figure 7.13 (v20220118) Paleoclimate data provide constraints on climate models' large-scale response to past CO2 changes 2024-08-07T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7x92gjb https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01531-3 Lunt, D. J. author Otto-Bliesner, Bette author Brierley, C. author Haywood, A. author Inglis, G. N. author Izumi, K. author Kageyama, M. author Kaufman, D. author Mauritsen, T. author McClymont, E. L. author Salzmann, U. author Steinig, S. author Tierney, J. E. author Zhao, A. author Zhu, Jiang author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher The paleoclimate record provides a test-bed in which climate models can be evaluated under conditions of substantial CO2 change; however, these data are typically under-used in the process of model development and evaluation. Here, we use a set of metrics based on paleoclimate proxy observations to evaluate climate models under three past time periods. We find that the latest CMIP6/PMIP4 ensemble mean does a remarkably good job of simulating the global mean surface air temperatures of these past periods, and is improved on CMIP5/PMIP3, implying that the modern climate sensitivity of the CMIP6/PMIP4 model ensemble mean is consistent with the paleoclimate record. However, some models, in particular those with very high or very low climate sensitivity, simulate paleo temperatures that are outside the uncertainty range of the paleo proxy temperature data; in this regard, the paleo data can provide a more stringent constraint than data from the historical record. There is also consistency between models and data in terms of polar amplification, with amplification increasing with increasing global mean temperature across all three time periods. The work highlights the benefits of using the paleoclimate record in the model development and evaluation cycle, in particular for screening models with too-high or too-low climate sensitivity across a range of CO2 concentrations. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. None eng geoscientificInformation