edu.ucar.opensky::technotes:491 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-26T14:57:40.631886 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d77d2tkr Confidence Intervals for Forecast Verification 2010-01-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d77d2tkr https://doi.org/10.5065/D6WD3XJM Gilleland, E. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher The manuscript is an attempt to present in a single document the various types of confidence intervals, their assumptions, and other issues as they pertain to forecast verification applications. Confidence intervals can be categorized into parametric and nonparametric intervals. The most common parametric intervals are those based on the assumption of approximate normality. Such intervals are discussed in detail for those verification statistics that use this approximation, in addition to details about the assumptions involved and how to check and account for the assumptions. Bootstrap intervals are also discussed. Of particular importance are the assumptions underlying the bootstrap procedure, which are frequently overlooked because of a miscommunication that the procedure has no assumptions. When the assumptions are met, or they are accounted for within the bootstrap procedure, then this approach can provide highly accurate intervals for most statistics of interest. The various bootstrap confidence intervals (along with their pros and cons) and bootstrap methods are described. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Statistical applications Weather research/forecast models theme U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Change Master Directory GCMD 2021-09-17 revision 11.2 NASA Global Change Master Directory originator Valids List: Science and Services Keywords Copyright Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. None eng geoscientificInformation