Identification

Title

Enhancing Ensemble Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts in the Upper Colorado River Basin Using Multi‐Model Climate Forecasts

Abstract

In the Colorado River Basin (CRB), ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) forecasts drive operational planning models that project future reservoir system conditions. CRB operational seasonal streamflow forecasts are produced using ESP, which represents climate using an ensemble of meteorological sequences of historical temperature and precipitation, but do not typically leverage additional real-time subseasonal-to-seasonal climate forecasts. Any improvements to streamflow forecasts would help stakeholders who depend on operational projections for decision making. We explore incorporating climate forecasts into ESP through variations on an ESP trace weighting approach, focusing on Colorado River unregulated inflows forecasts to Lake Powell. The k-nearest neighbors (kNN) technique is employed using North American Multi-Model Ensemble one- and three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts, and preceding three-month historical streamflow, as weighting factors. The benefit of disaggregated climate forecast information is assessed through the comparison of two kNN weighting strategies; a basin-wide kNN uses the same ESP weights over the entire basin, and a disaggregated-basin kNN applies ESP weights separately to four subbasins. We find in general that climate-informed forecasts add greater marginal skill in late winter and early spring, and that more spatially granular disaggregated-basin use of climate forecasts slightly improves skill over the basin-wide method at most lead times.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7t43xmb

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2021-12-15T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact