Identification

Title

Analog-based ensemble model output statistics

Abstract

An analog-based ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) is proposed to improve EMOS for the calibration of ensemble forecasts. Given a set of analog predictors and corresponding weights, which are optimized with a brute-force continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) minimization, forecasts similar to a current ensemble forecast (i.e., analogs) are searched. The best analogs and the corresponding observations form the training dataset for estimating the EMOS coefficients. To test the new approach for renewable energy applications, wind speed measurements at 100-m height from six measurement towers and wind ensemble forecasts at 100-m height from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) are used. The analog-based EMOS is compared against EMOS, an adaptive and recursive wind vector calibration (AUV), and an analog ensemble applied to ECMWF EPS. It is shown that the analog-based EMOS outperforms EMOS, AUV, and the analog ensemble at all measurement sites in terms of CRPS and Brier score for common and rare events. The CRPS improvements relative to EMOS reach up to 11% and are statistically significant at almost all sites. The reliability of the analog-based EMOS ensemble for rare events is better compared to EMOS and AUV and is similar compared to the analog ensemble.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7jw8g2s

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

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Temporal reference

Temporal extent

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End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2015-07-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

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Conformity

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Use constraints

Copyright 2015 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work.

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact