Identification

Title

Verifying supercellular rotation in a convection-permitting ensemble forecasting system with radar-derived rotation track data

Abstract

The utility of radar-derived rotation track data for the verification of supercell thunderstorm forecasts was quantified through this study. The forecasts were generated using a convection-permitting model ensemble, and supercell occurrence was diagnosed via updraft helicity and low-level vertical vorticity. Forecasts of four severe convective weather events were considered. Probability fields were computed from the model data, and forecast skill was quantified using rotation track data, storm report data, and a neighborhood-based verification approach. The ability to adjust the rotation track threshold for verification purposes was shown to be an advantage of the rotation track data over the storms reports, because the reports are inherently binary observations whereas the rotation tracks are based on values of Doppler velocity shear. These results encourage further pursuit of incorporating observed rotation track data in the forecasting and verification of severe weather events.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7st7rnt

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

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keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

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East bounding longitude

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Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2017-04-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

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Use constraints

Copyright 2017 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work.

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact