edu.ucar.opensky::articles:27187 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-24T18:51:34.494424 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7j96bk7 Remote effects of Tibetan Plateau spring land temperature on global subseasonal to seasonal precipitation prediction and comparison with effects of sea surface temperature: the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I experiment 2024-04-08T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7j96bk7 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06905-5 Xue, Y. author Diallo, I. author Boone, A. A. author Zhang, Y. author Zeng, X. author Lau, W. K. M. author Neelin, J. D. author Yao, T. author Tang, Q. author Sato, T. author Koo, M. author Vitart, F. author Ardilouze, C. author Saha, S. K. author Materia, S. author Lin, Z. author Takaya, Y. author Yang, J. author Nakamura, T. author Qi, X. author Qin, Y. author Nobre, P. author Senan, R. author Wang, H. author Zhang, H. author Zhao, M. author Nayak, H. P. author Pan, Y. author Pan, X. author Feng, J. author Shi, C. author Xie, S. author Brunke, M. A. author Bao, Q. author Bottino, M. J. author Fan, T. author Hong, S. author Lin, Y. author Peano, D. author Zhan, Y. author Mechoso, C. R. author Ren, X. author Balsamo, G. author Chou, S. C. author De Rosnay, P. author van Oevelen, P. J. author KLOCKE, D. author Ek, Michael B. author Li, X. author Guo, W. author Zhu, Y. author Tang, J. author Liang, X. author Qian, Y. author Zhao, P. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher The prediction skill for precipitation anomalies in late spring and summer months-a significant component of extreme climate events-has remained stubbornly low for years. This paper presents a new idea that utilizes information on boreal spring land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) to improve prediction of subsequent summer droughts/floods over several regions over the world, East Asia and North America in particular. The work was performed in the framework of the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I (LS4P-I) experiment, which focused on whether the TP LST/SUBT provides an additional source for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability. The summer 2003, when there were severe drought/flood over the southern/northern part of the Yangtze River basin, respectively, has been selected as the focus case. With the newly developed LST/SUBT initialization method, the observed surface temperature anomaly over the TP has been partially produced by the LS4P-I model ensemble mean, and 8 hotspot regions in the world were identified where June precipitation is significantly associated with anomalies of May TP land temperature. Consideration of the TP LST/SUBT effect has produced about 25-50% of observed precipitation anomalies in most hotspot regions. The multiple models have shown more consistency in the hotspot regions along the Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal (TRC) wave train. The mechanisms for the LST/SUBT effect on the 2003 drought over the southern part of the Yangtze River Basin are discussed. For comparison, the global SST effect has also been tested and 6 regions with significant SST effects were identified in the 2003 case, explaining about 25-50% of precipitation anomalies over most of these regions. This study suggests that the TP LST/SUBT effect is a first-order source of S2S precipitation predictability, and hence it is comparable to that of the SST effect. With the completion of the LS4P-I, the LS4P-II has been launched and the LS4P-II protocol is briefly presented. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. None eng geoscientificInformation