Identification

Title

Probabilistic climate change projections for CO2 stabilization profiles

Abstract

Probabilistic projections of future climate change for a range of CO2 stabilization profiles intended for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are presented. A very large ensemble of simulations with the reduced complexity, Bern2.5D climate model is used to explore the uncertainties in projected long-term changes in surface air temperature and sea level due to uncertainties in climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake. Previously published probability density functions of climate sensitivity are used to calculate probabilistic projections for different CO2 stabilization levels and to calculate the probability of not exceeding a certain global mean surface temperature for a given stabilization level. This provides a new way of communicating long-term uncertainty which can serve as a basis for selecting a CO2 stabilization level given a temperature limit and help to estimate the overshoot risk society is willing to accept.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7hd7wgm

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

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South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2005-10-15T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact