Identification

Title

A reduced complexity model for probabilistic risk assessment of groundwater contamination

Abstract

We present a model of reduced complexity for assessing the risk of groundwater pollution from a point source. The progress of contamination is represented as a sequence of transitions among coarsely resolved states corresponding to simple statements like "a spill has occurred." Transitions between states are modeled as a Markov jump process, and a general expression for the probability of aquifer contamination is obtained from two basic assumptions: that the sequence of transitions leading to contamination is Markovian and that the time when a given transition occurs is independent of its end state. Additionally, we derive an asymptotic value for the probability of contamination that is equivalent to the so-called rare event approximation. First we develop the model for sites in statistically homogeneous natural porous media, and then we extend it to highly heterogeneous media composed of multiple materials. Finally, we apply the model to a simple example to illustrate the method and its potential.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7tt4r48

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2008-06-06T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact