Reappraisal of the Climate Impacts of Ozone‐Depleting Substances
We assess the effective radiative forcing due to ozone-depleting substances using models participating in the Aerosols and Chemistry and Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Projects (AerChemMIP, RFMIP). A large intermodel spread in this globally averaged quantity necessitates an "emergent constraint" approach whereby we link the radiative forcing to ozone declines measured and simulated during 1979-2000, excluding two volcanically perturbed periods. During this period, ozone-depleting substances were increasing, and several merged satellite-based climatologies document the ensuing decline of total-column ozone. Using these analyses, we find an effective radiative forcing of -0.05 to 0.13 W m(-2). Our best estimate (0.04 W m(-2)) is on the edge of the "likely" range given by the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC of 0.03 to 0.33 W m(-2) but is in better agreement with two other literature results.
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2016-01-01T00:00:00Z
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2020-10-28T00:00:00Z
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