Identification

Title

Impact of intraseasonal oscillations on the tropical cyclone activity over the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean Sea in GFDL HiRAM

Abstract

The tropical cyclones (TCs) that form over the warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico region pose a major threat to the surrounding coastal communities. Skillful subseasonal prediction of TC activity is important for early preparedness and reducing the TC damage in this region. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a 25km resolution Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) in simulating the modulation of the TC activity in the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea by the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) based on multiyear retrospective seasonal predictions. We demonstrate that the HiRAM faithfully captures the observed influence of ISO on TC activity over the region of interest, including the formation of tropical storms and (major) hurricanes, as well as the landfalling storms. This is likely because of the realistic representation of the large-scale anomalies associated with boreal summer ISO over Northeast Pacific in HiRAM, especially the enhanced (reduced) moisture throughout the troposphere during the convectively enhanced (suppressed) phase of ISO. The reasonable performance of HiRAM suggests its potential for the subseasonal prediction of regional TC risk.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d73n260v

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2017-12-19T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact