Identification

Title

Latent variable modeling for integrating output from multiple climate models

Abstract

Numerical models of atmosphere - ocean circulation are widely used to understand past climate and to project future climate change. Although the same laws of physics, chemistry, and fluid dynamics govern any general circulation model, each model's formulations and parameterizations are different, yielding different projections. Notwithstanding, models within an ensemble will have varying degrees of similarity for different outputs of interest. Multi-model ensembles have been used to increase forecast skill by using simple or weighted averages where weights have been obtained by considering factors such as estimated model bias and consensus with other models (Giorgi and Mearns, J. Clim. 15:1141–1158, 2002, Geophys. Res. Lett. 30:1629 - 1632, 2003; Tebaldi et al., Geophys. Res. Lett. 31:L24213, 2004, J. Clim. 18:1524 - 1540, 2005). This paper considers an alternative view of multi-model ensembles. For use with the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), multivariate statistical models are employed to characterize modes of similarity within the members of an ensemble. Specifically, we propose a spatially-correlated latent variable model which facilitates the exploration of when, where, and how regional climate models are similar, and what factors best predict observed locations of model convergence.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d77p9101

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2012-05-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact