Identification

Title

Strong El Niño events lead to robust multi-year ENSO predictability

Abstract

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon-the dominant source of climate variability on seasonal to multi-year timescales-is predictable a few seasons in advance. Forecast skill at longer multi-year timescales has been found in a few models and forecast systems, but the robustness of this predictability across models has not been firmly established owing to the cost of running dynamical model predictions at longer lead times. In this study, we use a massive collection of multi-model hindcasts performed using model analogs to show that multi-year ENSO predictability is robust across models and arises predominantly due to skillful prediction of multi-year La Nina events following strong El Nino events.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7028wrg

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2024-06-28T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact