Identification

Title

An analysis of the effect of global warming on the intensity of Atlantic hurricanes using a GCM with statistical refinement

Abstract

A statistical intensity adjustment is utilized to extract information from tropical cyclone simulations in a 50 km resolution global model A simple adjustment based on the modeled and observed probability distribution of storm lifetime maximum wind speed allows the model to capture the differences between ob served intensity distributions in active/inactive year composites from the 1981-2008 period in the North Atlantic This intensity adjustment is then used to examine the atmospheric model s responses to different sea surface temperature anomalies generated by coupled models for the late twenty first century In the North Atlantic all simulations produce a reduction in the total number of cyclones but with large intermodel spread in the magnitude of the reduction The intensity response is positively correlated with changes in frequency across the ensemble However there is on average an increase in intensity in these simulations despite the mean reduction in frequency The authors argue that it is useful to decompose these intensity changes into two parts an increase in intensity that is intrinsic to the climate change experiments and a change in intensity positively correlated with frequency just as in the active/inactive historical composites By isolating the intrinsic component which is relatively independent of the details of the SST warming pattern an increase is found in storm lifetime maximum winds of 5-10 m s⁻¹ for storms with intensities of 30-60 m s⁻¹ by the end of the twenty first century The effects of change in frequency which are dependent on the details of the spatial structure of the warming must then be superimposed on this intrinsic change

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d73r0tfd

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

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keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

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East bounding longitude

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Temporal reference

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End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2010-12-01T00:00:00Z

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Use constraints

Copyright 2010 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work.

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact