Identification

Title

A simple model for assessing climate control trade-offs and responding to unanticipated climate outcomes

Abstract

Persistent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions threaten global climate goals and have prompted consideration of climate controls supplementary to emissions mitigation. We present MARGO, an idealized model of optimally-controlled climate change, which is complementary to both simpler conceptual models and more complicated Integrated Assessment Models. The four methods of controlling climate damage-mitigation, carbon dioxide removal (CDR), adaptation, and solar radiation modification (SRM)-are not interchangeable, as they enter at different stages of the causal chain that connects GHG emissions to climate damages. Early and aggressive mitigation is necessary to stabilize GHG concentrations below a tolerable level. While the most cost-beneficial and cost-effective pathways to reducing climate suffering include deployments of all four controls, the quantitative trade-offs between the different controls are sensitive to value-driven parameters and poorly-known future costs and damages. Static policy optimization assumes perfect foresight and obscures the active role decision-makers have in shaping a climate trajectory. We propose an explicit policy response process wherein climate control policies are re-adjusted over time in response to unanticipated outcomes. We illustrate this process in two 'storyline' scenarios: (a) near-term increases in mitigation and CDR are deficient, such that climate goals are expected to slip out of reach; (b) SRM is abruptly terminated after 40 years of successful deployment, causing an extremely rapid warming which is amplified by an excess of GHGs due to deterred mitigation. In both cases, an optimized policy response yields substantial benefits relative to continuing the original policy. The MARGO model is intentionally designed to be as simple, transparent, customizable, and accessible as possible, addressing concerns about previous climate-economic modelling approaches and enabling a more diverse set of stakeholders to engage with these essential and timely topics.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d78919mw

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

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keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

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Temporal extent

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Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2021-10-01T00:00:00Z

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Conformity

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name of format

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Constraints related to access and use

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Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact