Identification

Title

From reliable weather forecasts to skilful climate response: A dynamical systems approach

Abstract

While weather forecasting models can be tested by performing and evaluating many hindcasts, the limited observational record restricts the degree to which climate projections can be evaluated. Therefore a question of interest is: to what degree can we evaluate the potential skill of a climate model's response to forcing by assessing the reliability of short-range weather and seasonal forecasts produced by the same model? We address this question using a dynamical systems framework. We use linear response theory to provide the mean climate response of a general dynamical system to a small external forcing. We relate this response to the reliability of initial value forecasts. We find that, in order to capture the mean climate response, the forecast model must correctly represent the slowest evolving modes of variability in the system. The reliability of forecasts on seasonal and longer time-scales, which is sensitive to the representation of these slow modes, could therefore indicate if the forecast model has the correct climate sensitivity and so will respond correctly to an applied external forcing. In this way, the skill of initialized forecasts could act as an emergent constraint' on climate sensitivity. However, we also highlight that unreliable seasonal forecasts do not necessarily indicate an incorrect climate projection. This is because correctly representing rapidly evolving modes is also necessary for reliable seasonal forecasts.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7pr8039

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2019-04-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact