Identification

Title

Identifying a new normal in extreme precipitation at a city scale under warmer climate regimes: A case study of the Tokyo metropolitan area, Japan

Abstract

Identifying the change of city-scale extreme precipitation (EP) under the "new normal" of global climate is critical for various urban risk assessments. Here, we investigate the change of hourly EP caused by warmer climate regimes in a large urban agglomeration in midlatitude, Tokyo, Japan. We use pseudo-global warming dynamical downscaling approach with a convection-permitting regional climate model considering two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios 8.5 and 4.5 to simulate the August climate for the present (2005-2014) and the future time (up to 2100). The results show a substantial enhancement of local hourly precipitation regarding both frequency and intensity. Framing the change with Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling relation, which is of approximately 7% per K warming, we confirmed the paradigm of "extreme gets more extreme" in the future local hourly precipitation. The 0.99 quantile precipitation is intensified at the super CC scaling rate (3 CC); whereas the intensification of lower-quantile precipitation is at the sub-CC rate. The EP intensification is much stronger than that reported for a tropical city, highlighting geographical diversity in precipitation response to the global warming effect. The EP intensification is attributed to the global-warming caused convective inhibition (CIN) enhancement. Enhanced CIN temporarily delays weak convections to initiate, allowing it to build up further, and when the convection does trigger, it becomes intense.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d72f7s80

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2022-11-16T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact