edu.ucar.opensky::articles:24110 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-25T06:35:29.915792 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d70p13ck An initialized attribution method for extreme events on subseasonal to seasonal time scales 2021-02-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d70p13ck https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1021.1 Wang, G. author Hope, P. author Lim, E. author Hendon, H. H. author Arblaster, Julie author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher When record-breaking climate and weather extremes occur, decision-makers and planners want to know whether they are random natural events with historical levels of reoccurrence or are reflective of an altered frequency or intensity as a result of climate change. This paper describes a method to attribute extreme weather and climate events to observed increases in atmospheric CO2 using an initialized subseasonal to seasonal coupled global climate prediction system. Application of this method provides quantitative estimates of the contribution arising from increases in the level of atmospheric CO2 to individual weather and climate extreme events. Using a coupled subseasonal to seasonal forecast system differs from other methods because it has the merit of being initialized with the observed conditions and subsequently reproducing the observed events and their mechanisms. This can aid understanding when the reforecasts with and without enhanced CO2 are compared and communicated to a general audience. Aunovhere-ocean interactions are accounted for. To illustrate the method, we attribute the record Australian heat event of October 2015. We find that about half of the October 2015 Australiawide temperature anomaly is due to the increase in atmospheric CO2 since 1960. This method has the potential to provide attribution statements for forecast events within an outlook period (i.e., before they occur). This will allow for informed messaging to be available as required when an extreme event occurs, which is of particular use to weather and climate services. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2021 American Meteorological Society (AMS). None eng geoscientificInformation