edu.ucar.opensky::articles:27135 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-24T18:53:10.337052 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d76h4nmm How do operational meteorologists perceive model performance for elevated convection? 2024-03-05T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d76h4nmm https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1213 Flack, D. L. A. author Lattimore, C. author Seltzer, M. author Silverstone, M. D. author Lehnert, M. author Lean, H. W. author Petch, Jonathan C. author Willington, S. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Operational Meteorologists (OMs) in the Met Office have a perception that elevated convection is not well represented in kilometre-scale models, which are generally associated with an improved representation of convection. Here, we consider why there may be a problem with representing elevated convection and consider how OMs judge the model to be poor so often. Three OMs have subjectively scored and classified observed elevated convection cases over the UK from 2017 to 2020. Continental plumes (warm, moist, air coming from the near continent or Africa) account for 73% of the cases. The most frequent errors are associated with (i) location, (ii) organisation, (iii) timing and (iv) intensity of the convection. Thus, OMs perceive that the biggest problem with predicting elevated convection is constraining the location of the convective events. The location errors are particularly prevalent for events coming to the UK from the near continent. The location errors are most frequently identified for flow regimes coming from the near continent in weakly forced synoptic conditions. The identification of this problem enables the specific targeting of research into continental plumes (for UK elevated convection) but also raises questions around the role of lateral boundary conditions in the forecasts of elevated convection. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. None eng geoscientificInformation