edu.ucar.opensky::articles:18007 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-26T02:58:11.990547 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7mg7r26 Incremental dynamical downscaling for probabilistic analysis based on multiple GCM projections 2015-12-28T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7mg7r26 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066242 Wakazuki, Y. author Rasmussen, Roy M. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher A dynamical downscaling method for probabilistic regional-scale climate change projections was developed to cover the inherent uncertainty associated with multiple general circulation model (GCM) climate simulations. The climatological increments estimated by GCM results were statistically analyzed using the singular vector decomposition. Both positive and negative perturbations from the ensemble mean with the magnitudes of their standard deviations were extracted and added to the ensemble mean of the climatological increments. The analyzed multiple modal increments were utilized to create multiple modal lateral boundary conditions for the future climate regional climate model (RCM) simulations by adding them to reanalysis data. The incremental handling of GCM simulations realized approximated probabilistic climate change projections with the smaller number of RCM simulations. For the probabilistic analysis, three values of a climatological variable simulated by RCMs for a mode were analyzed under an assumption of linear response to the multiple modal perturbations. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2015 American Geophysical Union. None eng geoscientificInformation