edu.ucar.opensky::articles:24546 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-24T22:56:08.047932 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d74m9809 https://doi.org/10.13012/B2IDB-6081052_V1 https Related Dataset #1 Global multi-model projections of urban daily temperatures https://doi.org/10.5065/D6RX99HX https Related Service #1 Cheyenne: SGI ICE XA Cluster https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.1157319 https Related Software #1 scikit-optimize/scikit-optimize https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3475638 https Related Software #2 JiaweiZhuang/xESMF: v0.2.1 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3872519 https Related Software #3 zzheng93/code_uhws: revised Large model structural uncertainty in global projections of urban heat waves 2021-12-18T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d74m9809 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24113-9 Zheng, Z. author Zhao, L. author Oleson, Keith W. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Urban heat waves (UHWs) are strongly associated with socioeconomic impacts. Here, we use an urban climate emulator combined with large ensemble global climate simulations to show that, at the urban scale a large proportion of the variability results from the model structural uncertainty in projecting UHWs in the coming decades under climate change. Omission of this uncertainty would considerably underestimate the risk of UHW. Results show that, for cities in four high-stake regions - the Great Lakes of North America, Southern Europe, Central India, and North China - a virtually unlikely (0.01% probability) UHW projected by single-model ensembles is estimated by our model with probabilities of 23.73%, 4.24%, 1.56%, and 14.76% respectively in 2061-2070 under a high-emission scenario. Our findings suggest that for urban-scale extremes, policymakers and stakeholders will have to plan for larger uncertainties than what a single model predicts if decisions are informed based on urban climate simulations. Understanding the uncertainties associated with urban heat wave (UHW) projection is critical for local actions to mitigate extreme heat risks in cities. Here, the authors show that choices of model structural design contribute a large proportion of the uncertainty in projecting UHWs under climate change. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. None eng geoscientificInformation