Identification

Title

Prediction of the in situ coronal mass ejection rate for solar cycle 25: Implications for Parker Solar Probe in situ observations

Abstract

The Parker Solar Probe (PSP) and Solar Orbiter missions are designed to make groundbreaking observations of the Sun and interplanetary space within this decade. We show that a particularly interesting in situ observation of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) by PSP may arise during close solar flybys (<0.1 au). During these times, the same magnetic flux rope inside an ICME could be observed in situ by PSP twice, by impacting its frontal part as well as its leg. Investigating the odds of this situation, we forecast the ICME rate in solar cycle 25 based on two models for the sunspot number (SSN): (1) the forecast of an expert panel in 2019 (maximum SSN = 115), and (2) a prediction by McIntosh et al. (2020, maximum SSN = 232). We link the SSN to the observed ICME rates in solar cycles 23 and 24 with the Richardson and Cane list and our own ICME catalog, and calculate that between one and seven ICMEs will be observed by PSP at heliocentric distances <0.1 au until 2025, including 1 sigma uncertainties. We then model the potential flux rope signatures of such a double-crossing event with the semiempirical 3DCORE flux rope model, showing a telltale elevation of the radial magnetic field component B-R, and a sign reversal in the component B-N normal to the solar equator compared to field rotation in the first encounter. This holds considerable promise to determine the structure of CMEs close to their origin in the solar corona.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7445qsn

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

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keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

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West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

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Temporal reference

Temporal extent

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End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2020-11-06T00:00:00Z

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Quality and validity

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Conformity

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version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact