Identification

Title

Innovations in winter storm forecasting and decision support services

Abstract

Winter storms are disruptive to society and the economy, and they often cause signifi-cant injuries and deaths. Innovations in winter storm forecasting have occurred across the value chain over the past two decades, from physical understanding, to observations, to model forecasts, to postprocessing, to forecaster knowledge and interpretation, to products and services, and ultimately to decision support. These innovations enable more accurate and consistent forecasts, which are increasingly being translated into actionable information for decision-makers. This paper reviews the current state of winter storm forecasting in the context of the U.S. National Weather Service operations and describes a potential future state. Given predictability limitations, a key challenge of winter storm forecasting has been characterizing uncertainty and communicating the forecast in ways that are understandable and useful to decision-makers. To address this challenge, particular focus is placed on establishing a probabilistic framework, with probabilistic hazard information serving as a foundation for winter storm decision support services. The framework is guided by social science research to ensure effective communication of risk to meet users' needs. Solutions to gaps impeding progress in winter storm forecasting are highlighted, including better understanding of mesoscale phenomenon, the need for better ensemble calibration, a rigorous and consistent database of observed impacts, and linking multiparameter probabilities (e.g., probability of intense snowfall rates at rush hour) with users' information needs and decisions.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7959nhn

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2023-03-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact