Identification

Title

Improving the simulation of extreme precipitation events by stochastic weather generators

Abstract

[1] Stochastic weather generators are commonly used to generate scenarios of climate variability or change on a daily timescale. So the realistic modeling of extreme events is essential. Presently, parametric weather generators do not produce a heavy enough upper tail for the distribution of daily precipitation amount, whereas those based on resampling have inherent limitations in representing extremes. Regarding this issue, we first describe advanced statistical tools from ultimate and penultimate extreme value theory to analyze and model extremal behavior of precipitation intensity (i.e., nonzero amount), which, although interesting in their own right, are mainly used to motivate approaches to improve the treatment of extremes within a weather generator framework. To this end we propose and discuss several possible approaches, none of which resolves the problem at hand completely, but at least one of them (i.e., a hybrid technique with a gamma distribution for low to moderate intensities and a generalized Pareto distribution for high intensities) can lead to a substantial improvement. An alternative approach, based on fitting the stretched exponential (or Weibull) distribution to either all or only high intensities, is found difficult to implement in practice.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7571d81

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

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Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2008-12-27T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact