Identification

Title

Improved analyses and forecasts of hurricane Ernesto's Genesis using radio occultation data in an ensemble filter assimilation system

Abstract

Radio occultation (RO) refractivity observations provide information about tropospheric water vapor and temperature in all weather conditions. The impact of using RO refractivity observations on analyses and forecasts of Hurricane Ernesto's genesis (2006) using an ensemble Kaman filter data assimilation system is investigated. Assimilating RO refractivity profiles in the vicinity of the storm locally moistens the analysis of the lower troposphere and also adjusts the wind analysis in both the lower and upper troposphere through forecast multivariate correlations of RO refractivity and wind. The model forecasts propagate and enhance the added water vapor and the wind adjustments leading to more accurate analyses of the later stages of the genesis of the storm. The root mean square errors of water vapor and wind forecasts compared to dropsonde and radiosonde observations are reduced consistently. As a result, assimilating RO refractivity data in addition to traditional observations leads to a stronger initial vortex of the storm and improved forecasts of the storm's intensification. The benefits of the RO data are much reduced when the RO data in the lower troposphere (below 6 km) is ignored.

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document

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http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d78g8m72

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eng

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geoscientificInformation

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publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

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publication

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2012-01-01T00:00:00Z

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Copyright 2012 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work.

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OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

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