Translation of ensemble weather forecasts into probabilistic air traffic capacity impact
A novel approach for using high-resolution, ensemble-based numerical weather prediction model data for the purpose of weather-related, probabilistic aviation impact forecasting is presented. Ensemble-based weather forecasting will be a common feature in the Next Generation Air Transportation System. The approach uses ensemble model data to create probabilistic information and extraction of aviation-relevant characteristics from ensemble weather forecast data. By providing a representative sample of potential aviation impact, air traffic can be ready to respond to anticipated best- and worst-case outcomes. Using convective storms as an example, this paper demonstrates a proof-of-concept. In principal, it is applicable to other aviation weather hazards.
document
http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d70k29vp
eng
geoscientificInformation
Text
publication
2016-01-01T00:00:00Z
publication
2010-10-01T00:00:00Z
Copyright 2010 Air Traffic Control Association.
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