Identification

Title

A feed forward neural network based on model output statistics for short-term hurricane intensity prediction

Abstract

A feed forward neural network (FFNN) is developed for tropical cyclone (TC) intensity prediction, where intensity is defined as the maximum 1-min average 10-m wind speed. This deep learning model incorporates a real-time operational estimate of the current intensity and predictors derived from Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF; 2017 version) Model forecasts. The FFNN model is developed with the operational constraint of being restricted to 6-h-old HWRF data. Best track intensity data are used for observational verification. The forecast training data are from 2014 to 2016 HWRF reforecast data and cover a wide variety of TCs from both the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Ocean basins. Cross validation shows that the FFNN increasingly outperforms the operational observation-adjusted HWRF (HWFI) in terms of mean absolute error (MAE) at forecast lead times from 3 to 57 h. Out-of-sample testing on real-time data from 2017 shows the HWFI produces lower MAE than the FFNN at lead times of 24 h or less and similar MAEs at later lead times. On the other hand, the 2017 data indicate significant potential for the FFNN in the prediction of rapid intensification (RI), with RI defined here as an intensification of at least 30 kt (1 kt approximate to 0.51 m s(-1)) in a 24-h period. The FFNN produces 4 times the number of hits in HWFI for RI. While the FFNN has more false alarms than the HWFI, Brier skill scores show that, in the Atlantic, the FFNN has significantly greater skill than the HWFI and probabilistic Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction System RI index.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7ks6svb

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2019-08-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact