Identification

Title

Forestation in CMIP6: wide model spread in tree cover and land carbon uptake

Abstract

Forestation is expected to play an significant role as a terrestrial carbon dioxide removal technology in low-emission scenarios by storing carbon in the biosphere, thereby changing the physical properties of the land surface. To represent land use change, including afforestation and reforestation (AR), Earth system models (ESM) that contribute to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) draw on common projected land use data from Integrated Assessment Models. The extent and spatial distribution of AR differ substantially between the CMIP6 models ranging from −197 to 363 Mha of tree cover change by 2100 in the low-emission scenario SSP1-2.6 that has the highest AR among all future scenarios. The variability in simulated tree cover distributions, in combination with different representations of the carbon cycle, causes a high uncertainty in future land carbon uptake. Here, we disentangle the input information used to represent AR by CMIP6 models and differences in the carbon uptake process to explain the variable simulated potential of carbon sequestration due to AR. We provide recommendations on how AR might be implemented more consistently in future model intercomparison studies, especially regarding more consistent tree cover input (e.g. aligning present-day tree cover, consistent transition between land use and land cover types), and carbon-cycle-related processes (e.g. nitrogen cycle and disturbances). Adoption of these recommendations would increase the relevance of ESMs in terms of providing more accurate estimates of future land carbon uptake through AR.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7zs31xd

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2025-05-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

<span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:10pt;font-style:normal;" data-sheets-root="1">Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.</span>

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact