edu.ucar.opensky::articles:25248 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-24T22:49:17.467366 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7qr51rd https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5639805 https Related Dataset #1 CESM2(WACCM6) Earth system prediction framework forecast output for "Limited surface impacts of the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming" https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5645655 https Related Software #1 MATLAB scripts used to process, analyze, and plot model output and observations for "Delayed surface impacts of the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming" Limited surface impacts of the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming 2022-03-03T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7qr51rd https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28836-1 Davis, Nicholas A. author Richter, Jadwiga H. author Glanville, Anne A. author Edwards, James author LaJoie, E. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Subseasonal weather prediction can reduce economic disruption and loss of life, especially during "windows of opportunity" when noteworthy events in the Earth system are followed by characteristic weather patterns. Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), breakdowns of the winter stratospheric polar vortex, are one such event. They often precede warm temperatures in Northern Canada and cold, stormy weather throughout Europe and the United States - including the most recent SSW on January 5th, 2021. Here we assess the drivers of surface weather in the weeks following the SSW through initial condition "scrambling" experiments using the real-time CESM2(WACCM6) Earth system prediction framework. We find that the SSW itself had a limited impact, and that stratospheric polar vortex stretching and wave reflection had no discernible contribution to the record cold in North America in February. Instead, the tropospheric circulation and bidirectional coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere were dominant contributors to variability. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. None eng geoscientificInformation