Verfahren zur Berücksichtigung von Modellfehlern in der numerischen Wettervorhersage
Focusing on short-range weather ensemble-forecasts the need for model-error representations is established. Various model-error methods are being introduced and their merits and disadvantages discussed. The performance of the different model-error representations is documented for a particular meso-scale ensemble system: for this ensemble system stochastic perturbations and the multi-physics approach resulted in clearly better probabilistic forecasts, while the multi-parameter method showed little impact. Best results were obtained by combining all model-error schemes suggesting that no single representation alone can currently describe the complex nature of model error.
document
https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7ww7k8f
eng
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publication
2016-01-01T00:00:00Z
publication
2012-11-30T00:00:00Z
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