The role of natural halogens in global tropospheric ozone chemistry and budget under different 21st century climate scenarios
Tropospheric ozone (urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57367:jgrd57367-math-0001) is an important greenhouse gas and a surface pollutant. The future evolution of urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57367:jgrd57367-math-0002 abundances and chemical processing are uncertain due to a changing climate, socioeconomic developments, and missing chemistry in global models. Here, we use an Earth System Model with natural halogen chemistry to investigate the changes in the urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57367:jgrd57367-math-0003 budget over the 21st century following Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)6.0 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. Our results indicate that the global tropospheric urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57367:jgrd57367-math-0004 net chemical change (NCC, chemical gross production minus destruction) will decrease urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57367:jgrd57367-math-0005, notwithstanding increasing or decreasing trends in ozone production and loss. However, a wide range of surface NCC variations (from −60urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57367:jgrd57367-math-0006 to 150urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57367:jgrd57367-math-0007) are projected over polluted regions with stringent abatements in urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57367:jgrd57367-math-0008 precursor emissions. Water vapor and iodine are found to be key drivers of future tropospheric urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57367:jgrd57367-math-0009 destruction, while the largest changes in urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57367:jgrd57367-math-0010 production are determined by the future evolution of peroxy radicals. We show that natural halogens, currently not considered in climate models, significantly impact on the present-day and future global urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57367:jgrd57367-math-0011 burden reducing urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57367:jgrd57367-math-001230–35 Tg (11–15urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57367:jgrd57367-math-0013) of tropospheric ozone throughout the 21st century regardless of the RCP scenario considered. This highlights the importance of including natural halogen chemistry in climate model projections of future tropospheric ozone.
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http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7348pvz
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2016-01-01T00:00:00Z
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2021-10-27T00:00:00Z
Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
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