edu.ucar.opensky::articles:10552 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-26T14:35:52.485463 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7kd1zdw Sensitivity of 21st century stratospheric ozone to greenhouse gas scenarios 2010-08-24T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7kd1zdw https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044443 Eyring, V. author Cionni, I. author Lamarque, Jean-François author Akiyoshi, H. author Bodeker, G. author Charlton-Perez, A. author Frith, S. author Gettelman, Andrew author Kinnison, Douglas E. author Nakamura author Oman, L. author Pawson, S. author Yamashita, Y. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher To understand how greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions may affect future stratospheric ozone, 21st century projections from four chemistry-climate models are examined for their dependence on six different GHG scenarios. Compared to higher GHG emissions, lower emissions result in smaller increases in tropical upwelling with resultant smaller reductions in ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere and less severe stratospheric cooling with resultant smaller increases in upper stratospheric ozone globally. Increases in reactive nitrogen and hydrogen that lead to additional chemical ozone destruction mainly play a role in scenarios with higher GHG emissions. Differences among the six GHG scenarios are found to be largest over northern midlatitudes (∼20 DU by 2100) and in the Arctic (∼40 DU by 2100) with divergence mainly in the second half of the 21st century. The uncertainty in the return of stratospheric column ozone to 1980 values arising from different GHG scenarios is comparable to or less than the uncertainty that arises from model differences in the larger set of 17 CCMVal-2 SRES A1B simulations. The results suggest that effects of GHG emissions on future stratospheric ozone should be considered in climate change mitigation policy and ozone projections should be assessed under more than a single GHG scenario. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright 2010 American Geophysical Union. None eng geoscientificInformation