edu.ucar.opensky::articles:6281 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-26T15:20:16.984617 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7tt4r48 A reduced complexity model for probabilistic risk assessment of groundwater contamination 2008-06-06T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7tt4r48 https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006599 Winter, Larry author Tartakovsky, D. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher We present a model of reduced complexity for assessing the risk of groundwater pollution from a point source. The progress of contamination is represented as a sequence of transitions among coarsely resolved states corresponding to simple statements like "a spill has occurred." Transitions between states are modeled as a Markov jump process, and a general expression for the probability of aquifer contamination is obtained from two basic assumptions: that the sequence of transitions leading to contamination is Markovian and that the time when a given transition occurs is independent of its end state. Additionally, we derive an asymptotic value for the probability of contamination that is equivalent to the so-called rare event approximation. First we develop the model for sites in statistically homogeneous natural porous media, and then we extend it to highly heterogeneous media composed of multiple materials. Finally, we apply the model to a simple example to illustrate the method and its potential. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright 2008 American Geophysical Union. None eng geoscientificInformation