Identification

Title

Emulating grid-based forest carbon dynamics using machine learning: An LPJ-GUESS v4.1.1 application

Abstract

The assessment of forest-based climate change mitigation strategies relies on computationally intensive scenario analyses, particularly when dynamic vegetation models are coupled with socioeconomic models in multi-model frameworks. In this study, we developed surrogate models for the LPJ-GUESS dynamic global vegetation model to accelerate the prediction of carbon stocks and fluxes, enabling quicker scenario optimization within a multi-model coupling framework. We trained two machine learning methods: random forest and neural network. We assessed and compared the emulators using performance metrics and Shapley-based explanations. Our emulation approach accurately captured global and biome-specific forest carbon dynamics, closely replicating the outputs of LPJ-GUESS for both historical (1850â€“2014) and future (2015â€“2100) periods under various climate scenarios. Among the two trained emulators, the neural network extrapolated better at the end of the century for carbon stocks and fluxes and provided more physically consistent predictions, as verified by Shapley values. Overall, the emulators reduced the simulation execution time by 95â€‰%, bridging the gap between complex process-based models and the need for scalable and fast simulations. This offers a valuable tool for scenario analysis in the context of climate change mitigation, forest management, and policy development.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7348qwt

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

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Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2025-07-18T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

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Constraints related to access and use

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Use constraints

<span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:10pt;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;" data-sheets-root="1">Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.</span>

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact