Identification

Title

Development and greenhouse gas emissions deviate from the 'modernization' theory and 'convergence' hypothesis

Abstract

Projections of future climate change partly depend on the assumptions made for future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). These emissions are typically represented through an emissions scenario that posits a particular trajectory of development for the global society over the time of the projection. Since GHG emissions have a substantial impact on climate change, a relevant issue is what theories provide a good framework for addressing the drivers of GHG. We address 2 key research questions in this context: (1) Are carbon emissions attributable to structural change? If so, is it necessary to focus on the trajectories of carbon intensity or also on total emissions? (2) Does the development path of developing countries follow that of industrialized nations (convergence hypothesis) or is it suppressed in some areas and augmented in others due to world hierarchy and heterogeneity? Two development theories that have been applied to understand the drivers of GHG emissions are the modernization theory (MT) and the world economy theory (WET). In this paper, we use a statistical cluster analysis of economic data at the country level to test these theories and explore the convergence hypothesis with respect to GDP and GHG emissions. Results show no evidence of convergence among countries' welfare and emissions in the near term as a consequence of the MT. These results suggest that caution should be exercised in using the MT as basis for developing future emissions scenarios and that more attention should be paid to the WET.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d78g8n8x

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2008-11-04T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact