The 3-4 week MJO prediction skill in a GFDL coupled model
Based on a new version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled model, the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) prediction skill in boreal wintertime (November-April) is evaluated by analyzing 11 years (2003-13) of hindcast experiments. The initial conditions are obtained by applying a simple nudging technique toward observations. Using the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index as a predictand, it is demonstrated that the MJO prediction skill can reach out to 27 days before the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) decreases to 0.5. The MJO forecast skill also shows relatively larger contrasts between target strong and weak cases (32 versus 7 days) than between initially strong and weak cases (29 versus 24 days). Meanwhile, a strong dependence on target phases is found, as opposed to relative skill independence from different initial phases. The MJO prediction skill is also shown to be about 29 days during the Dynamics of the MJO/Cooperative Indian Ocean Experiment on Intraseasonal Variability in Year 2011 (DYNAMO/CINDY) field campaign period. This model's potential predictability, the upper bound of prediction skill, extends out to 42 days, revealing a considerable unutilized predictability and a great potential for improving current MJO prediction.
document
https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d72v2hbt
eng
geoscientificInformation
Text
publication
2016-01-01T00:00:00Z
publication
2015-07-01T00:00:00Z
Copyright 2015 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work.
None
OpenSky Support
UCAR/NCAR - Library
PO Box 3000
Boulder
80307-3000
name: homepage
pointOfContact
OpenSky Support
UCAR/NCAR - Library
PO Box 3000
Boulder
80307-3000
name: homepage
pointOfContact
2025-07-11T22:40:19.021252