Identification

Title

Efficient Drift Correction of Initialized Earth System Predictions

Alternative title(s)

d010074

Abstract

<p>Ensemble Earth system model predictions initialized from states close to observations generally drift away from observed climatology and towards a biased model climatology over timescales from days to years. Estimation of drift, the change in forecast climatology with lead time, is essential for computing forecast anomalies that can be meaningfully compared with observed anomalies from the past and used with confidence to credibly anticipate weather pattern changes from weeks to decades in advance. Conventional methods for estimating drift rely on the availability of a large sample of reforecasts spanning at least two decades, but generating such comprehensive reforecast sets requires a significant investment of both human and computer resources. We show here that subseasonal to decadal forecast drift can be well estimated using minimal reforecast methods that target a predetermined climatological window, yielding forecast anomaly and skill verification metrics that closely match those obtained using standard (much more expensive) methods. Efficient and accurate forecast drift quantification facilitates prediction system experimentation with greatly reduced overhead. </p>

Resource type

dataset

Resource locator

https://gdex.ucar.edu/datasets/d010074/

protocol: https

name: Dataset Description

description: Related Link

function: information

https://gdex.ucar.edu/datasets/d010074/dataaccess/

protocol: https

name: Data Access

description: Related Link

function: download

Unique resource identifier

code

codeSpace

Dataset language

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

dataset

originating controlled vocabulary

title

reference date

date type

revision

effective date

2021-03-30

Keyword set

keyword value

CESM > NCAR Community Earth System Model

originating controlled vocabulary

title

reference date

date type

revision

effective date

2025-10-03

Keyword set

keyword value

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE > SEA LEVEL PRESSURE

originating controlled vocabulary

title

reference date

date type

revision

effective date

2025-10-03

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

1959-01-01T0000+00

End position

2023-12-31T2300+00

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2025-07-23

Frequency of update

notPlanned

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

organisation name

email address

datahelp@ucar.edu

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact

organisation name

NSF NCAR Geoscience Data Exchange

email address

datahelp@ucar.edu

web address

https://gdex.ucar.edu

name: NSF NCAR Geoscience Data Exchange

description: The Geoscience Data Exchange (GDEX), managed by the Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL) at NSF NCAR, contains a large collection of meteorological, atmospheric composition, and oceanographic observations, and operational and reanalysis model outputs, integrated with NSF NCAR High Performance Compute services to support atmospheric and geosciences research.

function: download

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata date

2025-10-09T01:40:45Z

Metadata language